Disillusioned

Disillusioned

We are in the grip of the worst economic crisis since the 1930s.  Though Mr Doom, Mr Nouriel Roubini, had warned us back in December 2006 that a crisis was looming, it was only after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers bank last September and the ensuing stock market crash that it dawned on us that we had more on our hands than just another irrational exuberance of the capital market manifested by the bursting of yet another bubble. This one, unfortunately, was gradually morphing into a severe global recession. As the crisis continues unabated, one thing is becoming clear, we are the witnesses of a reality that is repeatedly debunking our prognoses as being either too worst or all too optimistic. Some believe that the economy could fall back into step more quickly than predicted and they see inflation as a much greater threat. Others are predicting that the worst is yet to come; we are just at the beginning of the global freefall and we don't really know when we are going to hit rock bottom and once we reach it, how long the global economy will lie there.

Behind the Figures

If the Minister of Finance (MOF) feels the heat, he is not letting anyone see him sweat. For the third time in three weeks, he is “not happy at all about all that”- RS Denim, the STC and the Bank of Mauritius. While he tries to settle old scores, collecting enough of ammunitions to embarrass the Governor of the Bank of Mauritius on allegations of exaggerated expenses incurred by him, we will continue, on our side, to query some of the opacities of the Budget.

Titbits: The new labour laws; Reinventing MK; The emperors and their fiefs; The stimulus package : Out of steam; The Gold Option; The Maurice Ile Durable ( MID) Project

The new labour laws

At the Round Table organized by the Confederation of workers of the private sector (CSTP) on the new Labour laws, the representatives of the Mauritius Employers Federation and the Minister of Labour were conspicuously absent.

Titbits : A different perspective: The 24/7 economy model ; And the Grand Bassin show ; Kowtowing to the Asian Powerhouse ; Collective responsibility and witch-hunting; The next Minster of Finance; Depreciation of the rupee ; Abolishing the laureate system

 A different perspective: The 24/7 economy model

An avid commentator of the Mauritian scene once remarked that we are des beaux parleurs, and we get so carried away by our own rhetoric that we start believing in them and the clichés that we readily churn out. We have turned our homeland into a knowledge hub, a regional financial and services hub, a Seafood hub, a judicial hub, an inescapable Cyber hub, a Financial, Banking, Management or Legal Service Centre, a Maurice Ile Durable, you name it.

Aberrant !!! : Hedging; Extension of class hours; Food security; Two million tourists in 2015; The Integrated Resort Scheme (IRS); Our man from Harvard.

It is so aberrant that some of the stewards and opinion leaders of our economy have grown so gullible, refusing to wake up from the torpor into which they have been lulled in as the new formidable cohort of followers and cheerleaders. It is much easier to bend to the wind, to join the bandwagon than to take a hard look at the facts and filter out the frivolous statements, the incendiary rhetoric and its inadequacies.  Leadership or management or any such position of responsibility is supposed to be about more than cheering your team, humbling and jeering the other side- the dissenting side- that has freed itself from that horrible urge to always fit in and now dares to think differently. It’s supposed to be about changing the country for the better.

Stimulus package: Greater Coherence needed

The effectiveness of the additional stimulus package of around Rs 10 billion, equivalent to 3.8% of GDP ( much above the 2% norm recommended by the international institutions) to shore up our economic performance will depend to a large extent on some important parameters. A fundamental one, as pointed out by erudite Pierre Dinan, is our ability of “sortir du mode du projet pou passer à l’action” - especially the big time lag between allocation of funds and actual work being started.

THE NEW TAX BURDEN

Following the advice of the IMF in its document “FISCAL ADJUSTMENT STRATEGY AND MEASURES TO PROTECT LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS” of February 2006, the Ministry of Finance decided to apply some of its recommendations in the reform of our tax system. The IMF, in its standard application in most countries, usually argues in favor of streamlining the tax expenditures or tax concessions.