An Exit Interview that smears

(Published in L"Express, 15 Feb 2018 )
Far from setting the record straight the exit interview of the ex-Governor of the Bank of Mauritius (BoM) has kicked off an avalanche of further queries and attempts at deciphering the covert and the meticulously calculated revelations/allegations of the narrative

Budgetary Accounts, July- Dec 2017: Some Concerns

(Published in L'Express, 15 Feb 2018)

Data on budgetary central government accounts are reported monthly to the IMF and published by Statistics Mauritius. The latest figures on public finances relate to Dec 2017, and thus provide an indication of fiscal performance at a midway point of the 2017-18 budget.

Managing the Trilemma: The Monetary blip ‼!

( Published in Business Magazine No. 1316 -13-19 December 2017)
Some years back we were one of those few “ fake” economists” who had alerted the authorities on the futility of the Central bank to be supportive of growth in its  exchange rate and monetary policies because of the  " impossible trinity or trilemma” and the presence of excess liquidity. 

The tramway project: Untimely

There has been an alphabet soup of experts lining up to convince us that their alternative to the status quo is the ideal option-the tramway project. They have convinced us that the old solution of simply building more roads is unsustainable. They have provided a strong economic rationale for the tramway project. 

The NIT – a premature decision

(Published in L"Express )
Based on the recommendations of the Appendix VI on Earned Income Tax Credit (EICT) in the IMF Art IV document of May 2014, Government has proposed the Negative Income Tax (NIT) in Budget 2017/2018.  The IMF article argues that a EITC/NIT will generally augment the income of the poor and encourage labour force participation and employment. It makes the case for introducing an EITC for Mauritius because of its increasing income inequality, its relatively inefficient social safety net system, its low labour participation rate and high unemployment among the young and women.

The IMF and the Inflation narrative

In its Art IV Consultations 2017 Press Release, the IMF considers that inflationary pressures need to be tackled - “Inflation has picked up …., but there are signs of building of inflationary pressures.”. Some of our local analysts disagree. Let us try to grasp some of the portents of our inflation narrative.

IMF Art IV Consultations 2017 Press Release: A wake-up call

(Published in L'Express)

The IMF is appreciative of the projected level of real GDP growth of 3.9% in 2017, and of the continued robust economy, but considers that “vulnerabilities are rising”, namely with regard to a) the rising public debt and high budget deficit, b) rising inflation and low interest rates, and c) the rising current account deficit, and the overvaluation of the rupee exchange rate.