𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐌𝐒𝐌 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚

A recent press article by an economic columnist again tried to peddle the MSM claim that the downward adjustment to GDP made in the State of the Economy (SOE) document in Dec 2024 was unjustified, and that the recent upward GDP revision at end Sep 2026 by Statistics Mauritius (SM) raised GDP back to its correct value.

𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗚𝗕𝗖 𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀

He makes a false accusation that « 𝙇𝙚 𝙂𝙤𝙪𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙘𝙪𝙩é 𝙍𝙨 44 𝙗𝙣 𝙖 𝙡’𝙞𝙩𝙚𝙢 𝙙𝙚 𝙡’𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙙𝙚𝙨 𝙨𝙚𝙧𝙫𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙨 » in Dec 2024. The SOE did reduce net exports of services by Global Business companies (GBC) for 2023 by Rs 44 bn from Rs 84 bn to Rs 40 bn - a change that was endorsed by the Bank of Mauritius, and also by Statistics Mauritius. 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘚𝘔 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘢, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘎𝘋𝘗 𝘳𝘦𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘚𝘦𝘱 2026 𝘣𝘺 𝘚𝘔, 𝘧𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘐𝘔𝘍 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘎𝘉𝘊 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳, 𝘮𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘵 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘎𝘉𝘊 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 2023 𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘙𝘴 40 𝘣𝘯.

Net exports of GBC services for 2026 are estimated at Rs 57 bn, still well below the artificially inflated figure of Rs84 bn for 2023 by SM under the MSM Govt. 𝘓𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵 𝘥𝘦 𝘭’𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘭𝘦 𝘥𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘦𝘶𝘳 𝘭𝘦 𝘫𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘦 𝘦𝘵 𝘦𝘹-𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘦𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘥𝘶 𝘎𝘰𝘶𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘯’𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘢𝘴 𝘣𝘰𝘯! 𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘶𝘯𝘦 𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘰𝘲𝘶𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘦, 𝘤𝘦 𝘯’𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘢𝘴 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘶𝘵𝘦𝘳.

𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗚𝗕𝗖 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱𝘀

The IMF technical missions in March 2025 and May 2026 reviewed the treatment of the GBC sector in the balance of payments (bop) and national accounts, and recommended a new methodological treatment to capture GBC merchanting activities. Merchanting refers to transactions whereby GBCs acquire goods from non residents and subsequently resell them to other non residents.

In Sep 2026, SM revised bop and national accounts statistics as from 2018 to include merchanting activities. A new item representing net exports of GBC goods was thus added to the national statistics, estimated at Rs27 bn in 2023, thus raising total exports of goods and also GDP accordingly. The revised higher GDP for 2023 reflects a new merchanting item of RS 27 bn for net exports of goods, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘁 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯, 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗢𝗘 𝗶𝗻 𝗗𝗲𝗰 𝟮𝟰 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱.

𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁

As stated by SM, the GDP revision exercise in Sep 2026 mainly consisted of benchmarking National Accounts estimates from year 2018 to 2023, following data obtained from the Census of Economic Activities (CEA) conducted in 2023, and using the benchmark results for revising the GDP series to reference year 2023. Updated benchmarks are required to ensure that GDP measurement remains reflective of the economy as recommended by international best practices.

The overall estimate of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) for the benchmark year 2023 was revised upwards in Sep 2026 by some Rs15 bn, to Rs144 bn, mainly on account of a revision in investment in machinery and equipment using trade data for the year together with information from the CEA 2023. This upward adjustment in Sep 2026 is totally unrelated to the reduction in GFCF in the SOE in Dec 2024. SM estimated that GFCF in 2023 was only Rs129 billion, or Rs 29 bn, less than a manipulated figure of Rs158 bn by the MSM Government.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

In the Sep 2026 GDP revision, final consumption expenditure for 2023 was also revised upwards by Rs52 bn to Rs589 bn. The revision to household final consumption expenditure in year 2023 was based on the evidence from the Household Budget Survey 2023 and other data which indicated changes in household consumption patterns.

𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗚𝗗𝗣 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻

GDP for 2023 was revised upwards by Rs58 bn to Rs695 bn in Sep 26. The change in consumption expenditure (+Rs 52 bn) was the main contributor to the GDP increase, compared with GBC goods exports (+Rs27 bn) and GFCF (+15 bn). Statistical discrepancies in GDP for 2023, measured by the expenditure and production approach were brought down by about Rs30 bn. 𝘼𝙡𝙡 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙨𝙚 𝙞𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙨 𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙡𝙮𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙂𝘿𝙋 𝙪𝙥𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙙 𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙣 𝙎𝙚𝙥 2026 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙡𝙚𝙩𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙪𝙣𝙧𝙚𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙂𝘿𝙋 𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙣 𝘿𝙚𝙘 2024, 𝙬𝙝𝙞𝙘𝙝 𝙘𝙤𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙗𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙛 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙨 𝙤𝙛 𝙂𝘽𝘾 𝙨𝙚𝙧𝙫𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙤𝙛 𝙂𝙁𝘾𝙁 𝙗𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙈𝙎𝙈 𝙂𝙤𝙫𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙛𝙖𝙡𝙨𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖 𝙗𝙤𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙤𝙢𝙮 𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙚𝙫𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙝𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙜𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙚𝙡𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨.