Estimated Consolidated Budget Deficit in 2016-17 is 4.3% of GDP

The budget deficit for 2016-17 is estimated at 3.3% of GDP.  The IMF has argued, on several occasions, as in its 2011 Staff Report on Mauritius, that the deficit concept used by Government is “not comprehensive, because it excludes spending by special earmarked funds”.  In its 2014 Staff Report, the IMF again recommended “including all extra budgetary funds in the budget to increase fiscal transparency and better measure the fiscal stance”. 

OVERHAULING THE EDUCATION SYSTEM

Published in Le Mauricien, 20 August, 2015
Further to the brilliant editorial by Jean Marc Poché titled "L'education sésame du dévelopment " that raises some very pertinent issues, I will like to add that we are being given an excellent opportunity for an overhaul of the whole education and training system. We should also be thinking about " formation" - capacity building that prepares our teachers and kids for the future- as voiced out by some eminent  educationists.

The BAI saga: what about accountability ?

In the present BAI/BRAMER BANK saga, if they are some key players/people  who feel vindicated, they are the  ex-Minister of Financial Services, the ex-CEOs of the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and other high officials  of the FSC who were replaced after the 2005 elections. They had initiated a whole set of reforms in policy making and legislation that have supported the development of the financial sector. 

Mixed up figures

The just-released National Accounts Estimates for 2015 shows that the investment forecasts by the Statistics office appear to give greater weight to public than private sector projects. Public investments will increase by 21% in real terms ( or 25% in nominal terms from Rs19 bn to Rs24bn) .while private investments will increase by 1.7% in real terms (or 4.7% in nominal terms from Rs 55bn to Rs58 bn).  

SMART NATION rather than SMART CITIES

The whole concept of Smart City has been recycled  from the electoral manifesto of one of the marginal parties that contested the recent general elections. It is the vision of the future development of Mauritius by some few people, including a prominent architect. It is not  the vision of Mauritius by a majority of Mauritians. 

A budget of sound bites …….

Published in Le Mauricen , 28 March 2015
There were high expectations that the budget 2015-16 will lay down the new government's vision and roadmap for economic development via a series of big bang reforms that will take Mauritius to a whole new orbit of growth. The Budget remains an enigma long after the cheerleaders and the media have taken a break from their feverish excitement. For one looking for big bang reforms the Budget is not the place to look for them. It is rather evolutionary, incremental, not distinctly different from its predecessors.

Budget 2015-16 : Evolutionary or Revolutionary !!!

From Table 1, we can see that the Consolidated Budget deficit, inclusive of special funds, has been quite high for the past two years, a result of both cyclical issues and structural challenges. There are likely to be future concerns about revenue buoyancy. Both total revenue and tax as a % of GDP have been dipping while current expenditures are likely to increase further to more than 22% of GDP with the continuing high growth in government wage bill and the additional Rs 4.7 billion in old age pension. This may not be a problem in 2015 if it is met from the Special Funds but will be a big burden in future years.