In his reply to a PQ by Mr Ramful, our Pada boasts that “Vous savez, je suis un économiste, j’aime bien donner quelques chiffres" ....and provides the following figures “On était avec un PIB de 500 milliards en 2018, 511 milliards en 2019, 448 milliards en 2020. … Maintenant, on est dans la pente ascendante. Nous sommes en train de reprendre. Nous avons fait 480 milliards en 2021, plus de 20 milliards en dessous de ce qu’on avait fait en 2019. C’est pour 2022 que nous allons pouvoir dépasser le PIB de 2019.”
By now , all our economists and analysts know that Pada’s numbers should be viewed with many grains of salt; a close look at the numbers tell a different story; these bald numbers tell only a small part of the story , part of which Pada cleverly omits.
He omits to tell us that the main reason for improving upon the nominal 2019 GDP figures in 2022 is because of our high GDP deflator of 5.6 % in 2022, (because of the higher inflation)-see Table I below. The last time we had such high GDP deflators were in 2007 and 2008 at 8.3% and 5.7% respectively-the inflation rate in 2007 and 2008 were 8.8% and 9.7% respectively (under the Sithanen-Mansoor tandem)-See Table II.
However, removing the effect of inflation on the numbers, we get the GDP series in constant 2006 prices -See table III below. It’s beyond 2022, based on an assumed growth rate of 7.2 % in 2022, that we can expect to do better than 2019.
And in terms of our per capita Gross National Income(GNI) in dollars , we have still a lot of catch up to do-still below the 2015 level-See table IV. (assuming an average rate of Rs 45 to the dollar for 2022)
As we have said earlier, our Pada continues to lie on the budget deficit figures which are not based on a consolidation of budgetary central govt with special funds. Special Funds(SF) account for significant capital spending and even current spending. In the coming years, SF spending is likely to exceed budget transfers to SF (in line with the electoral cycle) and the budget balance will thus underestimate the fiscal deficit.
In the latest IMF report, public debt data published by the Ministry of Finance was revised for an incorrect consolidation adjustment made by the Finance Ministry to artificially reduce the debt level. (Whether a recent IMF SDR allocation of about Rs 8 bn should also be included is not clear). Statistics Mauritius (SM) should be reporting debt data in line with the IMF GFS manual independently of Govt.
Even IMF has become aware of the Ministry of Finance's fiddling with the figures and our Pada should take note of their latest comments on safeguarding the independence of SM with regard to its estimations of economic developments and outlook.
