In Dec 24, the Ministry of Finance published a "𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑬𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒚"(SOE) document, which found that GDP data was grossly exaggerated, notably “𝙗𝙮 𝙖 𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙗𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙢𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙘𝙤𝙤𝙠𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙛 𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙖 𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙤𝙪𝙨 𝙂𝙤𝙫𝙩”. The SOE revised GDP data downwards by Rs 21 bn (3%) for 2023 and Rs36 bn (5%) for 2024, and Statistics Mauritius (SM) has since decreased GDP further by an additional Rs5 bn for both years.
The SOE did not clearly identify the sources of data fudging, and only mentioned the issue of inclusion of exports of GBC (offshore) services in GDP. SOE reduced the value of exports of GBC services by about half from 2021 to 2024, but this adjustment was correspondingly added to statistical discrepancies and did not affect GDP figures. Instead, SOE lowered GDP by a significant downward adjustment of public sector investments.
In Sep 24, SM estimated public investments at Rs40 bn for 2023 and at Rs50 bn for 2024. In Sep 25, SM figures are now down to Rs25 bn and Rs26 bn, respectively. The overestimation of public investments by SM in Sep 24, amounting to 61% for 2023 and 92% for 2024, was an outrageous and fraudulent exaggeration. The falsification of public investment statistics by SM started in Sept 23, even when it was then known that a major Govt project announced in the 2023 Budget - the Metro Express extension to St Pierre and La Vigie, would not be going ahead.
Astoundingly, the IMF Mission Report of May 24 failed to note any GDP data deception, despite several articles in L’express newspaper, including one on GDP overestimation in Oct 23, highlighting potential GDP manipulation by inclusion of GBC services and fake public investment statistics.
The previous PM and the former minister of finance have challenged the GDP revisions in SOE, but SM has maintained revised lower estimates for public investment and GDP. The latest SM Note dated 30 Sept 2025 also confirmed a revised treatment of GBC services in the national accounts, in the wake of a recent IMF technical assistance mission.
GDP estimates still reflect large discrepancies between the expenditure and production approaches. These statistical discrepancies have risen to over 5% of GDP, 𝒃𝒖𝒕 𝒊𝒕 𝒊𝒔 𝒉𝒐𝒑𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝑺𝑴 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒇𝒖𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓 𝒓𝒆𝒇𝒊𝒏𝒆 𝒊𝒕𝒔 𝑮𝑫𝑷 𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
SM and IMF have now validated the downward revision in GDP, but without any admission of data manipulation so far. 𝑭𝒊𝒅𝒅𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒘𝒊𝒕𝒉 𝒐𝒇𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝒇𝒊𝒈𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒔 𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅 𝒃𝒆 𝒔𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒆𝒅, 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒍𝒖𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒐𝒑-𝒓𝒂𝒏𝒌𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒐𝒇𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒂𝒍𝒔 𝒂𝒕 𝑺𝑴 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑴𝒊𝒏𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝑭𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒘𝒉𝒐 𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒐𝒗𝒆 𝒕𝒐 𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒇𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒔. 𝑶𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒘𝒊𝒔𝒆, 𝒊𝒕 𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅 𝒉𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒆𝒏 𝒂𝒈𝒂𝒊𝒏.
