(Please recall my article dated 2nd August.)
Statistics Mauritius (SM) reports fiscal data to the IMF, which is also published on its National Summary Data Page (NSDP) on its website. Data on (1) Central Govt Operations (CGO), namely, on revenue, expenditure and the deficit, and on (2) Central Govt Debt are published on a monthly basis, with a one-month lag.
GGO operations for eleven months of the fiscal year 2023-24 until end May 24 have been published, and the data for June 24 was expected to be published on 31 July 24. This did not happen. Instead, SM produced a statement on the NSDP to state that the CGO data for end June 24 would be published on 9 August 24. This did not happen for the second time, and SM is now stating “The CGO not released on 9 August 2024 due to delay in obtaining the source data”.
There seems to be a major issue with CGO data. Following the budget, the view had been expressed that Govt revenue for 23-24 was likely being overestimated by over Rs5 bn. The delay in publishing CGO data seems to confirm this view. This would imply a higher Govt deficit, and higher Govt debt.
In fact, central Govt debt reported to the IMF and published on the NSDP shows a figure of Rs491 bn at end June 24, which is Rs 17 bn higher than forecast in the budget. The Budget Estimates 2024-25 dated 7 June 24, projected Central Govt debt (excluding a consolidation adjustment to compare with the NSDP figure) of Rs474 bn at end June 24.
Assuming public enterprise debt is the same as forecast in the budget, public sector debt (i.e. central govt debt + public enterprise debt) would also be Rs17 bn higher, or higher by 2.4 % points of GDP. The Public Sector Debt ratio would thus stand at Rs541 bn, or close to 77% of GDP, instead of the budget forecast of Rs524 bn, or 74.5% of GDP.
It should also be noted that there are strong indications that GDP data is also being overestimated by a SM adjustment to include primary income of global business companies in domestic income. The Bank of Mauritius, which is responsible for balance of payments data compilation in line with IMF standards, has not made any such adjustment. The public sector debt to GDP ratio in June 24 is most likely still close to 81% as in June 23.
The Ministry of Finance is responsible for public debt data, which is published on its website for each quarter end, with a two-month lag. The public debt data for end June 24 is expected to be published at end August 24. Officials are probably working overtime under instructions to fudge the debt ratio figure, so as not to alarm Moody’s.
