From north to south,west to east, it’s a historical turning point; the contours of a new world map are emerging which are likely to transform the geopolitical landscape bringing back the worst periods of the Cold War. Is it a new Iron Curtain that is descending on the world sealing off the two hostile blocs armed to the teeth pointing nuclear weapons at each other across the curtain ? Is it possible that what we had once consigned to the history books - announcing the global triumph of political and economic liberalism after the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989-is making a return?
Let us explore the implications of the possibility a new iron curtain descending over the world !
It means that countries will have to pick sides. They will no longer have the luxury of sitting on top of the iron curtain attempting an old balancing act between Moscow and Washington DC while the tectonic plates of global power shift beneath their feet. The West is more likely to interpret such neutrality as failure to condemn the invasion and as de facto backing of Moscow. These countries will be categorized as non-dependable partners.
But as the war in Ukraine enters a more vicious phase, with Moscow and its allies having to cope with the effects of sanctions on global prices and supplies, many of these countries diplomatic tightrope act could get hard to sustain. Do not forget that the broad unanimity and severity of Western sanctions have certainly made a strong statement of intent, with potentially far-reaching consequences. A raft of Western companies are shuttering businesses in Russia in response to pressure from consumers to take a stand against the invasion of Ukraine. This may extend to some of the countries in the anti-West bloc.
Among the 35 countries that abstained in censuring Russia at the UN General Assembly, it will be interesting to know how many will maintain their support to the anti-West bloc once the Iron Curtain falls with full force over the world stage imposing a whole different logic to their critical interests. At the end of the day, we will see whether it’s interests or morality that drive foreign policy decisions!
Kazakhstan , for example, a close Russian ally, (the last of the Soviet republics to declare independence during the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991) which has avoided criticising Russia's move to invade a fellow ex-Soviet republic, seemed to have retracted because it would not want to be on the wrong side of a new Iron Curtain.
While we may also see the weakening of regional associations, including BRICS, Saarc, ASEAN etc , is it possible to think of the emergence of multipolarity, of different power centres, that will undermine the hegemony of the two blocs - a counterweight - a new entente of genuinely democratic countries?
It will be a more modernized version of the Non- Alignment movement with the same goals ,as pointed out by Samir Amin back in 2014 “We found ourselves in conflict with the world order that was sought to be imposed on us at the time. Our movement of non-aligned countries then proclaimed our right to choose our route to development, implemented laws and forced the powers of the time to adjust to the demands of our development..”
…imposition of colonialism, neo-colonialism, bureaucratic socialism ,autocracies, financial imperialism & globalisation ..and now this war..is it not time for the rebirth of a movement of non-aligned and genuinely democratic countries ?
