In his intervention on a local radio, Mansoor, the ex-Financial Secretary was true to himself, a typical bureaucrat and to be more exact, an IMF bureaucrat, making the case for Mauritius borrowing from the Bretton Woods institutions to finance the post Covid-19 economic revival of the economy. We meant ” bureaucrat “ also in the conventional "Yes Minister" sense . He was more concerned about not displeasing our policymakers, past and present, rather than being sharp, convincing , ingenious and innovative in his arguments and suggestions. We were not surprised .
He had brought in his classical IMF kit with its traditional remedies for the Mauritian economy, more or less a copy of similar earlier policy prescriptions - fiscal consolidation that include measures to curtail current expenditure growth, improve the productivity of public expenditures and its quality by reallocating towards areas that are more conducive to growth, in particular by increasing the share of public expenditures on productive investment in physical and human capital and restructure public sector undertakings, including disinvestment.
But we all know, as well as the others who have tried before, that the Sithanen-Mansoor tandem did not really steer the economy through the pains of restructuring- the demanding changes involved in improving competitiveness and ensuring cost-effectiveness in education, health care, the public sector, social security and pensions. At the first outcry, they backed down. They preferred the easy way out-some few touches to the tax rates and some improvements to the investment climate framework backed by a high dose of the depreciation of the rupee(18%). It was plainly a case of missed opportunities .
Yes, Mr Mansoor, we are badly shaken by the Conoravirus but we have not grown so amnesic that we do not recall your failure to leverage our advantages to usher in novel structural reforms and new pillars of growth. We squandered the momentous opportunity to reform and transform the economy hence secure our collective future.
No, Mr Mansoor, not more of the same , what is now required is a road map for concrete reforms and a new path of breaking ideas and strategies for a new development model . What we are presently going through is not the traditional capitalist system’s business cycles you are used to ; this is something which you are not used to, neither are we ! We cannot blame you for that. Being a typical IMF bureaucrat, you are more accustomed to serving those countries lining up for IMF support with their begging bowls . We could not thus expect much in terms of innovative ideas for a rebooting of the economy in these exceptional, unpredictable times - a “ time to think the unthinkable because the situation demands it.”
Another aspect of the typical bureaucrat exhibited by Mr Mansoor in the radio intervention is the excessive deference , not to say servility, to the present regime on its management of the economy. ( “Govt in fer bien” restated some four to five times) Everything seems to be right with the present regime- their present policies, the pre-Covid -19 state of the economy, the level of the budget deficit and public debt. He seems to be oblivious of the recent data relating to our main economic fundamentals which show that in 2019 we have realised one of the lowest GDP growth rate since 2002, a budget deficit amounting to -7% of GDP and a public debt higher than 70% of GDP if we include the off-budget expenditures and the undrawn commitments under the Indian Exim bank line of credit of over Rs 15 billion, and for borrowings of over Rs 5 billion from non-financial public sector entities. (Mansoor cannot pretend to be ignorant of such colourable accounting having himself tried his hand at such tricky budgetary tricks) . And in 2020, it is estimated that we will be the third worst performer among some 45 Sub-Saharan African countries in terms of the Budget Deficit/GDP ratio (as published by the WEO of April 2020, IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook) .
Or Is it because our dear ex-FS is trying to cosy up to the regime to take up the offer of the Director of the Economic and Research Bureau (ex-EDB) or , at the very least, for some side consultancies ? That could explain why he shrewdly avoided the plain hard truth- the stark reality- on many of the issues raised in the radio programme pertaining to helicopter money, taxpayers’ money in exchange for equity , the ownership concentration and the production structure…His rather simplistic stand on Air Mauritius, attributing its debacle to its failure to consolidate with other major airlines that would have given it the resources and strategic flexibility to thrive in increasingly challenging times, seems to confirm our views on the reason for such partiality. He avoids mentioning the excessive wage bill and administrative costs, the costly purchase of aircrafts, the air corridor blunder, the failure in attracting Chinese tourists, the maladministration and incompetence of management, the unprofitability of certain routes…..
On concluding his radio intervention, Mr Mansoor offloaded his economist mantle for that of a “Citoyen” to warn us that we should not try to repair past injustices by creating further economic injustices/impairments, thus endangering the future pospects of the economy. He played it safe, ensuring that we do end up with more of the same, safely anchored in the status quo- the same liberal policies that favoured the privileged, the oligarchy-dominated private sector of conglomerates , the rent seekers; the liberalising of land to unlock massive potential for profits in real estate development for large land owners; the granting of more advantageous Independent Power Producer (IPP) cast-iron contracts; the Smart Cities. the unproductive IRS, & RES driving up land prices that are increasing inaccessible to Mauritian households; the unproductive FDI inflows that go to construction and real estate activities, the hollowing of our manufacturing sector…you name it
We doubt whether our IMF bureaucrat is capable of providing us with an alternative vision of the economy, an alternative model of development with ample creative ideas on “land democratization”, import substitution, the local economy, food security, the SME sector, culture, education, sports, the fishing industry ,….while integrating environmental constraints. Truly major reforms await the country, things that were not tried in the past.
We have to bring new life, new vigour and vitality to the economy. The present situation demands audacity , a genuine intent to reform and a willingness not to succumb only to the priorities of the day but to the initiation of long term reforms and a new model of development. Mauritius is longing forward for a grand vision and actions to go with it. We need actions that show we have the conviction and are not afraid of taking bold decisions to chart a new path for Mauritius to shape a great future for our children.
Mr Mansoor, because of the likes of you and company., we have missed the train already , we cannot afford now to squabble at the bus stop and miss the last bus as well . As one of our prolific commentators has put it, we are left with no choice - "When the justice of eating is met by complacency and the absence of will to change a moribund system, the injustice of widespread crime will inevitably follow."
