You must have heard him , shouting from the rooftops that the economy is experiencing «Le plus faible taux de chômage en 25 ans»
His frequent attempts at playing fast and loose with our statistics, selectively choosing the ones that tell only a small part of the story , have been a depressing spectacle. A more complex and different story always happen to unravel from the tapestry of Pada’s obfuscations…Let’s start by pulling at some of his story’s threads and observe how the deceptions unravel. (In the absence of the annual estimates for 2023-which are usually based on data from different data sources- we have used the results of the Continuous Multi-Purpose Household Survey as an approximation for the 2023 figures).
a. Our Pada omits to point out that lower or same number of unemployed as in 2023 generated higher unemployment rates in 2000, 2001 and 2008 (see table below). Thus it is meaningless to talk about unemployment rate without referring to the number of unemployed, the activity rate and changes in the size of labour force.
b. Between 2019 and 2023, the population over 16 years of age increased by 19,000. However, the labor force remained almost the same as most of the population joined the inactive population i.e persons who are not seeking or available for work. This disinterest in joining the labor force is expressed in the ratio of the labor force to the total population or the labor activity rate, which fell to a record low of 58.2% in 2023, excluding the Covid-affected years 2020 to 2022. It had already been declining progressively from 60.4% in 2015 to 59.3% in 2019, mainly because of population ageing and the associated rise in the numbers of retired persons.
The labor force, which went up from 585,000 in 2014 to 591,000 in 2019, is still around 591,000 in 2023. Declining population growth rate and population ageing are leading to a fall in the labor activity rates and a stabilisation of the labor force. Even moderate economic growth is sufficient to create jobs, and thus reduce unemployment.
Demographic factors largely explain the continued fall in unemployment from 46,000 in 2015 to 40,000 in 2019 and to 38,000 in 2023. The unemployment rate also dropped from 7.9% to 6.7% in 2019, and to a record low of 6.4% in 2023.
The minister of finance is using demographic trends to blow Govt’s trumpet on tackling unemployment. Govt economic policies are in fact driving an increasing number of young mauritians to seek employment abroad.
Our Pada must tone down his exuberance as we have yet to catch up or do much better than 2019. We are not out of the woods yet!
If we go by IMF more realistic growth forecast (5%) than Pada’s for 2023 (6.8%), GDP in real terms in 2023 would be more or less the same as in 2019.
Our Pada should not allow himself to get carried away by his irrational exuberance …sinon li pou continué fané. !
