Thursday, April 8, 2021

Latest IMF figures


From WEO(Apr 2021) and Fiscal Monitor
Some noticeable points:
-the Rs 60 billion transfer from the CB to the budget has been taken as financing by the IMF not as revenue as it is in our Budget calculations.
-In the calculation of the Public Sector Debt, IMF has not carried out the consolidation adjustment which wipes out some 2% of our debt. We have often denounced this doubtful adjustment to the PSD.
-The figures do not include the latest National Accounts statistics and the impact of the second wave on the economy -the additional fiscal measures- the recent accelerated depreciation of the rupee, the increase in petroleum prices, the surge in prices, ...
-As tourism receipts worldwide are not expected to recover to 2019 levels until 2023, we do not expect a return back to pre-pandemic levels until well into into 2023 and maybe 2024.