For 2019, we have estimated the GDP growth rate to be 3%. Surprisingly Statistics Mauritius has published the National Accounts figures for the 4th Quarter 2019 which is a mere 2.8% whereas the Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate for 2019 is estimated at 3.1%, without any indication of the corresponding GDP growth rate. (maybe a result of the shortage of personnel because of Covid-19) Or Is it because the GDP growth rate is one of the lowest since 2002 ?
(This government has systematically undermined the independence and credibility of our institutions, by putting blatantly partisan people at the head of some of our key institutions, who have behaved as outright political agents. Is Statistics Mauritius going the same way ? For years now, we have been served with the regular scenario of an unrealistically overestimated growth rate at the beginning of the year (3.8% for 2019 in March estimates) that has to be constantly readjusted significantly downwards at the end of the year. And this time besides the omission of the GDP growth rate for 2019, the only explanation for the lower growth figures for 2019 is this one line: “Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate for 2019 is estimated at 3.1%, compared to 3.6% achieved in 2018”. Covid-19 "oblige", but some doubts do linger and it is not good for SM's credibility).
Some of the data relating to our main economic fundamentals as published by the WEO of April 2020, show that in 2019, we were among the worst performers in Africa in terms of our Budget Deficit/GDP ratio and in 2020, it is estimated that we will be the third worst performer among some 45 Sub-Sharan African countries listed. And as for the inflation rate, it may overshoot the forecast if we adopt Sithanen’s “helicopter money” policy prescription while our Current Account balance may turn out to be in line with the estimates given the inevitability of the need to stimulate the economy with high doses of the depreciation of the rupee.
We warned them time and again to make provisions for a rainy day. They did not listen. Instead,they made provisions for quick wins in General Elections 2019. And when, Covid-19 struck the already wobbling economy was knocked out. Now reanimating the economy will demand lots of efforts and the treatment will be long and painful especially if we have to call doctor IMF who is patiently waiting for us with its traditional prescriptions including its “rotin bazar".
