Titbits :CT Power and MID: The Vision ?; A Cacophony of Figures ;The National Strategic Transformation Commission (NSTC) revisited; Zone d’Education Prioritaire (ZEP): A different approach.

CT Power and MID: The Vision ?

After the all-out “bétonnage” of the island, the commercial centres, the IRS and the obsession with road construction without any concomitant reduction in road congestion, we can look now forward to be asphyxiated by higher levels of emissions from more coal-fired power plants which are likely to be greater than that from all cars, trucks and other forms of transportation combined. When thick dust and black soot start coating the fresh green of our majestic flamboyants, mangroves and sugarcane fields, they will be sounding the death knell of our idyllic island. It will no longer be “un plaisir”.


Within the electricity sector, according to latest issue of Economic and Social Indicators on Energy and Water Statistics, coal-fired power plants already generate around 41% of the country's electricity: renewable energy (hydro, wind, landfill gas & bagasse) accounts for only 20%. Coal plants emit more than 80%, four out of every five tons, of heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions produced by all sources of electricity. Of all electricity sources, coal-fired power plants are the biggest threat to the stability of our climate, and in turn, to our children's future. Thus, the raison d’être of the “Maurice Ile Durable” (MID ) project is to decouple our economy from such dependence, including fossil fuels, that is threatening our economy and our way of life.

In 2008, we had announced our vision of making Mauritius a sustainable island through the MID project. The main objective is to minimize our dependency on fossil fuels through increased utilization of renewable energy and a more efficient use of energy in general. Coal-only was considered to be contrary to the MID vision and was not reckoned as a possible option in any event. The MID concept is supposed to include a participatory approach towards elaborating a strategy for sustainable development; it aims at taking on board the whole society in the implementation of this ambitious project. “The Maurice Ile Durable project belongs not to its conceptors or to Government but to the whole Mauritian nation. It is a social project and is essentially a vision that seeks to transform the environmental, economic and social landscape of the country.

“The VISION describes an end-point to which we all aspire, and provides a beacon along the way. It is an expression of where we want to see our country heading, how we want to live in that country and to a large extent, the kind of people we want to be as a nation. The VISION hence is the creation through a dialogue between Government and civil society…”

But now that vision is becoming somewhat blurred. It is leading us instead towards greater dependence on non-renewable sources of energy away from our vision of a low-carbon resource efficient green economy. Is that too far-fetched ? Not so, many countries are already committing themselves to getting as much as 30% of their electricity from renewable sources by 2020. UK’s energy secretary, Edward Davey, in its new energy bill that will unleash some $ 176 billion of investment into new energy infrastructure, particularly the low-carbon kind, is convinced that this investment will prove cost-effective in the longer-term as the price of fossil fuels goes up and the cost of renewable comes down. Around a fifth of Britain’s electricity-generating capacity including a lot of old nuclear and dirty coal-fired power stations will shut over the next decade. The decarbonisation of the electricity sector has already started in many countries. We should not be far behind. We need more coherent policies to encourage investment in low-polluting/clean energy production.


A Cacophony of Figures

We have been used to much rigour from Statistics Mauritius (SM) that we have been surprised lately by the flurry of discordant figures from the Ministry of Finance. In November last, with the presentation of the Budget, the medium term macroeconomic projections, worked out in consultation with SM (which falls under the umbrella of the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development), posted a 3.4% real GDP growth for 2012 and 4.% for 2013. These projections are based on assumptions, among others, of an increase in number of tourist arrivals by around 5%-8% during the period 2013-2015, 100% implementation of measures as per the timeframe set out in the Budget, a nominal depreciation of the rupee by an average 3.5% annually against major international currencies and an inflation rate of 6% in 2013.

There is no mention of the different scenarios that have been worked out, but on the basis of the assumptions, one can safely presume that it is an optimistic rather than a baseline scenario for 2013. We all know that actual capital spending during the past few years has rarely exceeded 50-60% of the earmarked capital expenditure despite last moment frivolity and excessive generosity of MOF to line ministries in an attempt to boost the figures on renovation, office equipment, transport equipment, etc. The figures for Budget 2012 show that, from January to November 2012, only 52.4 % of an allocated capital expenditure of Rs 14.2 billion was spent and the last-minute rush succeeded in boosting the figures by another Rs 2.2 billion of expenditure.

Barely a month later, SM revised upward, in its December issue, the real GDP growth rate for 2012 to 3.3% which still lower than the 3.4% as announced in the Budget. Surprisingly, SM’s projections for 2013 (3.7%) is way off the budget figures of a real GDP growth of 4%. In the same December issue, SM, in one of the rare cases in the annals of its publications of National Accounts estimates, has more than one scenario. The most likely or “status quo” scenario generates the 3.7% growth rate whereas the optimistic scenario, covered in a quite discreet 3-line note, is expected to register the 3.9% growth rate with the proviso that all budget measures, more specifically those related to public infrastructure projects, will be fully implemented. That’s it, the figures have been reconciled.

There is a similar dissonance in the budget deficit figures; the revised budget deficit/GDP figure is indicated as 2.5 % for fiscal year 2012 in the latest Budget documents. The more recent update announced a figure of 1.9%. This figure of 1.9% is not visible in any official document nor on the web site of the MOF. Given that it is subscribing to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), a global benchmark for disseminating macroeconomic data to the public, the MOF should be ensuring the availability of not only timely but also comprehensive statistics.

We cannot yet say that our budget figures are comprehensive enough. We still have to reconcile the budget figures with the macroeconomically more significant consolidated budget balance which include the Special Funds. The consolidated budget balance shows a higher budget deficit to GDP ratio of 2.9% in 2012 and 3.5% in 2013. Placing the operations of these Funds in the budget will help to bring greater transparency and consistency in the figures and render the macroeconomic figures more comprehensive.


The National Strategic Transformation Commission (NSTC) revisited

Mr Faizal Jeeroburkhan, in a stimulating article titled ‘Problems that are bogging us down’ in Le Mauricien of 26 January 13, draws our attention to the fact that there is a “lack of vision and long-term planning both at the regional and national levels. Fire fighting has become the preferred mode of action to resolve our most pressing problems such as water, traffic congestion, security and education.” He joins the long list of institutions, intelligentsia and corporate leaders that have been feeling the absence of a comprehensive strategic planning exercise at the national and sectoral levels. In its 2012-2015 Programme, government announced the setting up of a National Strategic Transformation Commission to meet this increasing demand for a well-coordinated medium- to long-term development strategy for the country that will bring greater coherence in the strategies and the key choices that have to be made including the linkages between sectors and their implementation capacities.

But now we are being told that a somewhat peculiar structure is being proposed for the NSTC. Subcommittees on thematic issues under the responsibility of Ministers will be set up as a superstructure for the NSTC, equivalent to an Economic Committee of the Cabinet. The MOF will continue to provide the underlying structure and will thus be piloting the NSTC. We do not think that such a structure is workable. The overarching vision for the country should be the task of an autonomous full-fledged Planning Commission equipped with a dedicated team that can think beyond short-term budgetary preoccupations to lay down the main building blocks to realise the vision. A steering committee set up under the aegis of the Planning Commission, comprising think-tanks of public and private sector organisations, will ensure a democratic approach, giving the opportunity to all sectoral stakeholders, in distinct working groups, to express their opinion freely on any issue and would ensure that the long-term strategic plan benefits from a wide-ranging national discussion, starting from the grassroots to the top echelon.

Zone d’Education Prioritaire (ZEP): A different approach

For quite some time now some of the main stakeholders of the education sector are decrying the ZEP project as “un échec cuisant”. Some of the measures taken recently only aims at patching up the system; we are persisting in applying the same traditional approach, and the small touches on the fringe will not improve the system because without commitment and belonging, the ZEP project is doomed. Have we exhausted all the possibilities of improving the ZEP system? The recent article ‘Écoles ZEP ou comment perpétuer l’exclusion’ by Gaëtan Jacquette raises the pertinent issue of uncommitted teachers who fail to identify themselves with their students – « c'est l'attitude sectaire de certains enseignants qui mène à ce très fort taux d'échec dans ces écoles des régions créoles. »

The recent book ‘How Children Succeed’ by Paul Tough, a journalist and former editor of the New York Times Magazine, tends to add much grist to Mr Jacquette’s stand. Paul Tough argues that emotional intelligence, motivation and persistence – character traits seldom calibrated – are more reliable indicators of whether a child, from any background, will do well than the intelligence that is measured by high IQ. Poverty is not in itself an index of future failure. Rather it is the unfiltered exposure to the stress and upheaval associated with it.

“Apparently medical studies show that children who grow up in abusive or dysfunctional environments generally find it harder to concentrate, sit still and rebound from disappointments. Repeated stress introduced into early lives can prevent the construction of the pathways children need in order to develop good character traits and solid cognitive skills.” This isn’t to say that those pathways can’t be generated later. If lower-income parents, Tough posits, can learn some theories and practices adopted from the attachment parenting movement, the children’s brains can recover and the kids can thrive and succeed even whilst living in poverty. There is some evidence to support this, and Tough gives some real world examples of what an “attachment to build character” program looks like. He also spends quite a large chunk of the book studying unique and wildly successful inner-city chess clubs as well as some pathway-to-college programs in Chicago’s poverty-ridden districts.

If an adult acts as a buffer, offering love, support and emotional investment, children are much less affected by the socio-economic conditions in which they live. “Studies show that early nurturing from parents or caregivers helps combat the biochemical effects of stress and educators can push better habits and self control.” Paul Tough has followed some of urban America's poorest young people through their secondary school careers over some years, tracking their rocky road towards higher education and revealing how their teachers are compensating for the missing investment in their early years by fostering what Tough sums up as "character". The components of character include resilience, self control, optimism and (Tough's favourite) grit. And he argues that it helps young people absorb and act on criticism, overcome setbacks and meet frustration and obstacles with renewed determination.

This is perhaps what Mr Jacquette expects from dedicated teachers who are « des enseignants de la même communauté et de la même culture que les enfants créoles.» These more committed teachers are more likely to instil in the ZEP students the discipline and persistence and demonstrate the ways and means to overcome adversity.

Moreover, Tough cites studies that give a different view on what schools, parents and the government can do to break the poverty cycle through education. Success, these studies say, lies not in early intervention and implementation of traditional cognitive skills (reading, math) but by teaching the “non-cognitive” skills – like persistence and curiosity -- that noteworthy people appear to have in abundance since toddlerhood. That means a totally different approach to our ZEP project -- an approach which will be relying more on the teaching of non-cognitive skills by well paid creative and committed teachers who can make a difference to the ZEP project.