Friday, December 14, 2007

NESC: Institution of conflict management?

In the context of the recent Annual Summit of the National Economic and Social Council, it is fitting to review its role and functions as the country faces the end of the growth cycle based on trade preferences and develops a new socio-economic model driven by openness and global competitiveness. -A new socio-economic model, that is arduously progressively, and at times painfully built,  around  a crucial set of macroeconomic and sectoral reforms and with the participation and support of all social and economic partners to break free of the strangling embrace of economic dependency .. This new set-up is forcing onto the agenda a new working relationship to forge the right consensus andpartnership that will be the making of our future. Indeed our special institutions of tripartism and conflict management have shaped our past. A rapid dig into our ur short economic history can help in  unravelling some of the sources and determinants of  the reality of our future development path.

What are the important determinants that launched Mauritius on a development path quite unique in the region and nurtured the gradual emergence of the “Indian Ocean Tiger”?, Was it the “joining of the Yaoundé or Lomé Convention” – which we have termed as market access -- or was it the  “foray in tourism” -- termed as export-led growth -- the crucial factors explaining our transformation? Recent economic literature dissecting Mauritius’ success story transcends such simple reductionism for a more intensive debate on initial conditions, geographic factors, market intervention and specific domestic institutions. It will be interesting to try to find our way in this maze of observations, arguments and counter arguments.

Initial or climatic conditions, geographic factors, or even specific factors like population control and the early eradication of malaria (equally important in the successful transformation of some other island economies like Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong) could not fully capture the complexities of our growth performance.  Indeed, in terms of initial conditions, Mauritius fared far worst than many African and East Asian economies.  In this respect at least, Professor Meade was on target in his diagnosis of the unfavourable inheritance of an economy fragmented on all lines -- ethnic, economic and political --, vulnerable to terms of trade shocks and impending exploding population and its remoteness from main markets and epicentres of growth. But it is rather on openness and the outward orientation strategy that there continues to be increasing debates on whether Mauritius had market-led or intervention-led strategies.  While some have continued to post Mauritius as the poster boy of the so-called Washington Consensus -- a diligent and dutiful student painstakingly adjusting relative prices to free trade levels and allowing specialisation to be driven by relative factors endowments --, others have classified Mauritius among the likes of the high performing Asian economies that adopted a distinctive approach to openness – a dirigiste trade liberalisation policy that effectively segmented the export sectors and the local import competing sectors.

But in the case of Mauritius, the outlier in terms of the unconventional determinants of the country’s performance, it is claimed that it is market access and the domestic export subsidies, compensating for some of the inefficiencies of the anti-export bias of the restrictive import regime and ensuring the profitability of the export sector, that explain a large part of the country’s success story.  The resulting rents on sugar, for example, amounted to some 5.4% of GDP on the average for the last two decades. Many other countries had started their economic transformation with better initial conditions. They were also monocrop economies, enjoyed preferential access to exports markets and had free trade zones.  But they failed where Mauritius succeeded.  

There must be other explanations besides openness and market access.  Some economic analysts claim that Mauritius’ openness to FDI brought us the much-needed technical expertise and the initial capital for investment.  Unquestionably, the spread and diffusion of the technical know-how, marketing talents and world class management capacity through either joint ventures, strategic alliances or mere local entrepreneurship and adaptation helped to boost the economy to a higher level of growth.

But this seems to be only part of the story for the present ongoing bidding wars to attract FDI do not seem to be yielding the desired results. Against a backdrop of secured access to preferential trading arrangements, Mauritius was perhaps an exceptional case that benefited from the Hong Kong syndrome. This seems to be essential fodder for those who claim the primacy of a particular set of institutions for FDI inflows, local entrepreneurship, and innovation.  The functioning democratic traditions and institutions helped to develop a social consensus without which the continuous and consistent programme of economic liberalisation would not have been possible.  The quality of the country’s institutions of conflict management, especially in accommodating the economic elite, ensured that the quota rents from the EU and US markets were properly utilised into productive sectors and in building up the social infrastructure to meet the developmental, social insurance and social assistance goals. This important determinant of growth, that is, the ability of our domestic institutions to manage the distributional conflicts, triggered by local and external shocks, stands out markedly in the case of Mauritius. The quality of our domestic institutions seems to override the other primordial factors affecting growth. 

But the specific set of institutions of conflict management that has served us well in a particular setting does not chime with the times. It has to be reconfigured in response to the opportunities and challenges of adjusting to a more uncertain, dynamic and connected economy. It will have to embrace the new reforms, new business dictates and governing principles grounded in competitive markets, a rule-based framework, openness, the synergies and efficiencies generated by improved economic management and public-private partnership schemes and effective governance through greater empowerment, opportunities and participatory approaches.

Our domestic institutions, reformulated for a new environment, now have the new distinctive role of driving the new development paradigm to ensure that our new socio-economic model is clearly ahead of the future no matter how fast it moves -- a model that jettisons obsolete practices for a reformist path driven by greater flexibility and mobility, a versatile and multidisciplinary labour force with workers changing jobs several times in their careers and working at odd hours, wider share ownership and broader stakeholder participation in order to efficiently manage the performance-centered workplace of the knowledge age; a model that demands a new mindset from all of us. We will have to adopt a Global State of Mind -- to think globally to acquire competitive rather than comparative advantage.  Our institutions and economic operators will have to think globally in international relations, in diplomacy, in marketing, trade and investment.

The NESC will thus have to assume the new reconfigured role of the earlier institutions of conflict management. It will have to evolve into an invaluable partner in the governance of the country by forging consensus through a permanent and sustained social dialogue for a greater participation of civil society in the democratic process with the aim of ensuring that social harmony keeps pace with economic development. It would thus help towards strengthening the bridge between the civil society and the National Assembly and further increase confidence in the democratic process and the necessity for a reforming path.

But unfortunately the NESC, though now a more open but still exclusive club, had continued to function as the earlier NEDC. It chose to limit its remit mostly to those few critical issues that are referred to it.  Complex economic decisions, programmes and policies have remained purely academic within the exclusive preserve of official experts and technocrats peppered with some trade union officials. It has not functioned as a genuine forum for civil society to organize and give democratic expression to their views after serious dissemination, study, debate, and dialogue. This has allowed our litany of differences to impose its current gridlock such that most of the challenging and topical issues have become a battleground for political partisanship because it chose the most limited level of public involvement, because people were not informed about matters that affect them on a need-to-know basis and were not asked for their input. The NESC has not been proactive enough to take these issues to the grassroots and give individuals and groups the opportunity to participate in vital decisions and strengthen their capacity to assess government programmes and reforms in relation to their needs, that of their region and the country. Such efforts tap into the local knowledge and resources of a community, with the recognition that these resources can be crucial to a successful implementation.

And on such issues like educational and curriculum reform, the use of Creole as the  language of instruction in schools, the need to restructure our social welfare policies on the twin principles of targeting and affordability and to protect our fragile eco-system against environmental risks, the need for user charges in the transport sector as a start, the forging of a Mauritian identity, building a fairer society and others, the NESC was meant to be the institution par excellence to build up grassroots and community involvement that is ongoing and throughout the year – not a  ritualistic process but done with a view to be informative; to isolate and clarify each point of disagreement till we find that our differences become resolvable, and by building upon these incremental resolutions, we can hope to forge a consensus. 

It has to be and seen to be above the common mêlée. ( also melee in English) Its recent sortie on the MAAS issue, more  intent to bludgeon rather than compromise will no doubt hurt its credibility in its  role as the harbinger of national dialogue. It gave the impression of being too partisan-more deft at letting bridges sag than building them between the two antagonists-, given the doubtful economic logic on which its argument are based to suggest taxing the profits of IPP qui dépassent ce qui aurait été legitime. (This is my first encounter with this type of profits; I’m more familiar with normal or abnormal profits; if we extend this logic it will lead us inevitably to forcibly taxing CMT for its illegitime profits gained by paying its workers a mere pittance -- wages below minimum -- for years, and taxing the sugar and textile sectors for the windfall gains they have been reaping over decades as a result of the unexpected appreciation of the euro.)  The NESC should be supportive of government’s commitment to democratisation by forging consensus not by amplifying conflicts.

The NESC establishing itself as a platform for social dialogue and consensus, as well as taking on the task of giving guidance on supranational policy issues: this is how we have visualized the ways and means for the NESC to develop true democracy, where everyone participates in the political process on a continuing basis and where citizen participation is a cherished right. We are aware that the practical difficulties of forging consensus in our multifaceted and multi-cultural nation are formidable. Consensus processes ordinarily differ from blue ribbon commissions in that the latter seeks to ensure input from all relevant stakeholders in an orderly, disciplined fashion. Consensus fosters mutual education on the true complexity of an issue, so that policy outcomes can better reflect the best thinking from various perspectives; it results in more enduring recommendations that stakeholders are less likely to challenge and leads to changes in working relationships that can favourably affect parties' ability to work together over time. While developing consensus is arduous, even exasperating, that is the only way to produce policies that reflect the varied perspectives of our citizenry, enabling us to live toether peacefully and productively.

While government is driving forward its economic and social reform agenda and committed to embrace democratisation and empowered participatory governance, the NESC will have to reorient its role more towards finding consensual solutions to the concerns and issues of all groups in our society for the common good. We can then be sure that with this inclusive more broad-based approach we will be able to work together more effectively and succeed in turning that old adage “nothing about us without us” into reality.