WHEN STATISTICS ARE MADE TO LIE !!!

The latest release of the National Accounts estimates has revised down its forecasts for GDP growth at market prices to 3.8%, lower than the 3.9% growth forecasted in September 2018. Gross Value added at basic prices would grow by 3.6% instead of 3.7% as forecasted in September 2018. 

The Regulatory Sandbox: Some issues !

(Published in MTimes 21 December 2018)

In its move onto the Fintech journey, this year Government had budgeted plans to set up a National Regulatory Sandbox Licence Committee to consider all issues relating to Sandbox licencing for Fintech activities.

Debt Market Development:

(Published in MTimes 14 December 2018)

Policies to support development of a government securities market.

Several measures have already been taken towards providing the basis for a deeper government debt market like improving the government’s cash balances forecast, publishing an issue calendar and information about post auction results, issuance of securities in key benchmark maturities and using the same instrument for both the Treasury’s funding operations and the central bank’s monetary policy operations to avoid market fragmentation.

Failure to Redress the Export Sector

(Published in MTimes 14 December 2018)

It was a rude awakening for the new government that took power in December 2014. Growth was sub-par, investments were floundering, saving was at rock-bottom but it was in the external sector that the situation was more serious. Excluding transactions of GBCs, the current account deficit was at 12.8% of GDP in 2014. This was much higher than the 9% allowed by SADC macroeconomic convergence targets.

Promoting Public Sector Governance

(Published  in MTimes 07 12 2018)

Governance matters. Government lays the foundation, Government sets the framework but good governance cannot be imposed from the outside; it must be constantly nurtured, inculcated, advocated and goaded if we want to reap its benefits. This government does not seem to believe in good governance and we should not be surprised that we have reached such levels of “satisfactory underperformance” of  State Owned Enterprises(SOEs) –institutions that are not held fully accountable for their performance. SIFB,IBA, SIC, MBC….you name it and you will come up  every week with a new one joining the long list of defaulters and under-performers.

A Delivery Unit at the PMO

(Published in Mtimes 07 12 2018)

Back in 2012, The World Bank’s Public Sector Performance-Development Policy Loan- (WB-DPL 2012) had highlighted that “...the fact that delays often occur in the implementation of planned public investment projects can be seen in the low levels of actual expenditure of the capital budget. This highlights not only that financial resources are inadequate but also that there is inadequate institutional and human capacity to implement these infrastructure projects in the short term.”  Capital spending has been averaging a dismal 2.6% of GDP annually under the previous regime.

The BAI saga : Some distortions

(Published in MTimes of 30 Nov 2018)

No that the ex-boss of the BAI is back in the news in the Britam case, some people are distorting the facts to try to show that the closing down of the BAI was solely a vengeful act of destruction and that the BAI was a well-run concern facing some short-term liquidity issues without any whatsoever involvement in any so-called Ponzi schemes.

Rethinking development: what does the population really want?

(Published in MTimes of 23 November 2018)

In last week’s interview to Mauritius Times, Nikhil Treebhoohun, economist and former director of NPCC, raises an important question: what does the population really want? 

BOM: A rather optimistic growth forecast?

Published in MTimes 16 11 2018

The Bank of Mauritius (BOM) seems to be the only one among the different agencies (IMF, Statistics Mauritius (SM), MCB group,Fitch Solutions Macro Research…) which is forecasting a 4% growth forecast for the Mauritian economy in 2018. The BOM usually aligns itself with SM’s latest macroeconomic forecasts and usually differs by more or less one percentage point to the latter‘s growth forecast. That’s quite reasonable. 

Doing Business Indicators : Not the whole Story

Published in MTimes 09 Nov 2018

Mauritius moves up five places relative to its last ranking and joins the Top 20 among 190 countries according to the World Bank's Doing Business 2019 Report published on 31 October. Government jubilates about this good score being a testimony to Government’s efforts to build a robust and resilient economy.

The Fitch Report: Slowdown of growth in 2019

Published in Mtimes 01 11 2018

According to the Fitch Solutions Macro Research, growth will decelerate in 2019 as a result of the continuous decline in sugar production and the worrying trends in the financial sector.

Opening up the economy to foreign talents: The easy way out

Published MTimes 01 11 2018

The private sector is pressing Government to adopt a policy of opening our borders to attract young foreign talents and emulate Singapore, Dubai and Canada. We are being told by the MCCI that “these talents should not be feared because they will help the country to start the second stage of its development.”

The Energy Saga Continues: Ivan Strikes Again

Published in MTimes 01 11 2018

Now that the MSM’s  ardent attempts at courtship of the MMM have been spurned and the former reacting with a Rs 50 million defamation case against its potential partner, Ivan Le Terrible could not see better opportunity to strike again. Notre Ivan le terrible persiste et signe. 

SAUDI ARABIA: ROGUE STATE

Published in MTimes 26 Oct 2018

AVAAZ.org was recently canvassing support to stand up to the Saudis for human rights. Saudi Arabia sentences women to death by stoning, brutally whips peaceful activists, and with their allies, bombed school buses full of kids in Yemen. 

Mauritius’ residence and citizenship schemes flagged on OECD blacklist

Published in Mtimes 26 October 2018

Mauritius by signing the Multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters was committed to implement tax transparency and effective exchange of information, in particular under the OECD/G20 Common Reporting Standard (CRS).

Identity Politics

Published in MTimes 19 October 2018

Some years back, following a comment on the “rodère ek donère boute” syndrome present in our system, I had discussed the whole issue of identity politics. I wish to take up some of the arguments from that article which I consider relevant to this day because of the presence of an amalgam of the same factors: the explosive growth of social media and the increasing feeling of victimisation in a situation of rising inequality

A structured process for nominating SOE boards

Published in MTimes 19 October 2018

Effective corporate governance requires strong boards composed of qualified and competent members exercising objective and independent judgement to guide strategy development and monitor management. The key challenge in the nomination process of directors to State Owned Enterprises’ (SOEs’) boards is to prevent the process to degenerate into a situation characterized as “political influence interference”.

The Economic Development Board: Which role ?

Published by Mauritius Times 19 October 2018

Some recent press reports have highlighted the teething problems the Economic Development Board (EDB) is having to clearly define its role of strategic economic planning and economic policy formulation. Many countries have likewise set up EDBs to provide advice to their governments in the formulation of policies, programmes and projects for the country’s long-term development and economic transformation. The difference with the Mauritian EDB is that in these countries it is exclusively dedicated to supporting the country’s development strategy and policies, and is not a mixed bag of various agencies involved in all sorts of promotion and facilitation activities. In our previous writings we had raised the issue of our hotchpotch EDB saddled with too many objectives. 

A Demonetisation to Crackdown on Black Money

Published in Mtimes Friday 12 October 2018

Some of the hawks in Government believe that they can regain some of their lost credibility, due to a proliferation of scandals and blunders over the past three years, through a demonetisation exercise involving high denomination notes to curb counterfeiting and money laundering which will certainly help to reverse the situation.

Petroleum prices: Kicking the can down the road

Published in MTimes 12 Oct 2018

Petroleum prices have remained unchanged thanks to the provision of an amount of Rs350 million from the Subsidy Reserve Fund. The retail price of Mogas should have been increased by Rs 0.85 per litre or 1.72% based on US$729.46 per metric tonnes for Mogas and the exchange rate of Rs 35 per US$.

What is all this fuss about electoral reform?

Published in MTimes 05 10 2018

This is how the younger generation is reacting to all the attention that the proposals for an electoral reform are receiving from all quarters. They are aware that the question of eliminating the compulsory declaration by candidates of their ethnicity is an urgency given the constitutional case put up by Resistans ek Alternativ before the Supreme Court. But our youngsters are doubtful of the sincerity of our politicians to find a solution to the whole issue.They believe that most of our politicians have ulterior motives and are trying to mobilise their partisans along their sectarian interests.

GBCs and the Balance of Payments

Published in Mtimes 05 10 2018

It is expected, from the newly released National Accounts estimates, that the Current Account (CA) deficit of the Balance of Payments is likely to improve marginally in 2018 to less than 6% of GDP. A closely related measure of the external deficit, namely the deficit in net exports of goods and services, is also forecast to decrease slightly from 13% of GDP in 2017 to 12.5 % in 2018.

Political caricatures:Victoria Bus Terminal: Chaotic handover.; Electoral reform; Special tuition for Parliamntarians; MBC- TV goes viral; the HRC...;The Cane Industry..;Financier Bastos arrested...

The Tourism sector: Reduce ticket taxes!!

Published in MTimes, 27 Sep 2018

The Director General of IATA recommends that we lower our ticket taxes and airport charges. We are classified 116th by World Economic Forum's Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report in terms of competitiveness in ticket taxes and airport charges.

Financial Sector: Pending Issues

Published in Mtimes 28 Sep 2018

Like the electoral reform proposals, the two-day ‘Mauritius International Financial Centre-Forward Looking’ conference held on  19 & 20 September 2018 at Intercontinental Mauritius Resort, turned out to be a non-event, more of a damage limitation exercise after the Eastern and Southern Africa Anti Money Laundering Group (ESAAMLG) damning report.

The Metro Express: Its impact?

Published in MTimes 21 September 2018

Part of the narrative of the Metro Express is that this project represents not just a new transport infrastructure but the dream of a “modern, liveable, vibrant and environmentally-friendly Smart Mauritius”.

The Combined Cycle Gas Turbine & Ivan's Failed Coup

Published in MTimes , 21 September 2018

As readers are aware our present model of electricity production relies less on public sector producers and more on private sector producers of electricity called Independent Power Producers (IPPs).

The Financial Sector: Challenges ahead.

Published in the MTimes 21 September 2018

The Government’s cheerleaders had every reason to cheer at the fact that Mauritius has moved up the rankings of the Global Financial Centres Index (GCFI) - from 56th to 49th (though GCFI also classified Mauritius among the “unpredictable centres”, which have a higher variance of assessments, meaning less stable). That’s because lately the Global Business Sector has been feeling the heat from all sides.

The Metro Express: the acommpanying measures

Recently, a top architect was commenting that « ... l’ État est en train de manière continue, de démocratiser et libéraliser l’accès à l’automobile, kot tou dimounn anvi roul loto, sans se soucier de savoir si le Metro Express un changement de mentalité ». 

Rs 15 to Rs19 billion for the Surveillance State

Can we afford this huge amount for the Safe City project? Another prestige project! We can achieve equally good results by spending more on our police force. Intelligent video surveillance has become widespread in more and more numerous social and national spaces, while its effects in terms of crime prevention and/or law enforcement and community reassurance are not demonstrated. 

Political Caricatures: Free education: Cost Sharing;The Metro Express: The accompanying measures; Rs19 billion for the Surveillance State; The Census Issue: “L’hypocrisie politicienne”

The salvation of free education and its public schools lies in giving more fiscal space to Government to allow it to invest heavily in overhauling the education system

The census issue: “L’hypocrisie politicienne”

(Published in Mtimes,13-20 September 2018)

In our dear little "C'est un plaisir" country, when some societal issues appear occasionally, as they do in most societies, we tend to sweep them under the carpet. After the Grand Bassin gandia issue, the LGBT march , the child marriage issue, religious conversions and now the Census issue: “L’hypocrisie politicienne”, there is a common pattern. 

Free education: Cost Sharing

Published in Mtimes 13-20 September 2018

 The five students of RCC, the laureates of the Omnicane award on the theme “Enn sel lepep, Enn sel nation”,  question and challenge us on the free education system, inter alia.  “ Il y a beaucoup de parents qui peuvent payer. D’ailleurs, ils payent bien les leçons particulières. L’argent ainsi économisé pourrait être consacré aux plus nécessiteux. De même on aurait du prévoir  le Wi-Fi gratuit à ceux qui n’ont pas de connexion la maison….”

CRY MY BELOVED COUNTRY !!!

Dear Daughter,

I always had the feeling that wherever you are it cannot be as good as home. There is no better place than home. I am feeling sorry today to have had such feelings because now I am having that uneasy sentiment that this cannot be home. Indeed, I am not recognising it.

CENSUS ON ETHNIC LINES

What's the big fuss about it ?

It does not make any difference to progessives whether the Census is or is not carried along ethnic lines. 

The Public Sector Debt –a question of definition and measurement..

Published in Le Mauricien, 17 August 2018
Lately, public sector debt has attracted a number of concerns in respect of its definition and measurement. As for all economic and statistical data, different definitions and measurements are possible depending on the aim of the analysis. The overall debt exposure accounts for commitments taken when signing loans, lines of credit, and other financial obligations, and thus measures all debt obligations contracted, whether disbursed or undisbursed.  

A GLOOMY OUTLOOK FOR THE FINANCIAL SECTOR

Comments:

Brilliant article by Arvind Boolell on the Fnance Bill dealing with the financial sector in Le Mauricien of the 7th August.

Now that the Global Business Sector is feeling the heat from all sides-this time even from our dear African brothers-there is a sudden awakening of the small chosen coterie of advisers and civil servants. As many as 69 amendments to legislations pertaining to financial sector are being made in the forthcoming Finance Bill. 

Innovation and Productivity

Innovation:Ranked 49^thin 2015, Mauritius has regressed to the 75th position in the Global Innovation Index (GII)2018 among 126 countries. Singapore is 7th. Our innovation efficiency has also deteriorated, which means we are getting less out of our inputs and we have some glaring weaknesses too. We are 105th, 93rd and 99th in knowledge creation, knowledge diffusion and research and development respectively.

Doubtful Public Sector Debt figures

Published in Le Mauricien, 20 July, 2018
In one of the articles on the budget – The hidden figures of Budget 18-19- I had pointed out that now more people are becoming aware of the dubious accounting in the budget. Among them were some local accounting firms which have highlighted this lack of transparency in the Budget. One of these firms was PwC.

WHY NOT A DEMONETISATION TO CRACKDOWN ON BLACK MONEY ?

If this regime wants to regain some of its lost credibility due to a proliferation of scandals and blunders over the past there years, a demonetisation campaign of the the high denomination notes to curb counterfeiting and money laundering will certainly help to reverse the situation.

Lower Unemployment rate due to the falling activity rate

     

Table I: Unemployment rate recalculated

	Q1 2018	Year 2018
Unemployment rate	7.1	6.9
Unemployment rate (recalculated)	7.7	7.1

Exclusive of the activity rate effect, it is 7.7% in Q1 2018 and 7.1% for 2018

CONFUSION AT EDB : Policy-making !!!

Published in Le Mauricien,9th July 2018
It comes as no surprise to us. In my article of July last year (on my blog-RChand Corner), I did point out that the EDB was being saddled with too many objectives. We felt that the EDB should focus on the formulation of economic strategy and policy and this task should be entrusted to a dedicated broad-based committee or agency, under the aegis of the Prime Minister’s office. 

The hidden figures of Budget 18-19

Summing up the budgetary debates, the PM counter argued that “Notre performance impressione Moody’s…et le FMI.” That’s a weak argument. Moody’s bases its analysis on the official figures and if they have any queries they liaise directly with the Ministry of Finance. 

Comments on "The lean budget legacy or how to really score political points " - Le Mauricien

https://www.lemauricien.com/article/the-lean-budget-legacy-or-how-to-really-score-political-points/

Please read this article in Le Mauricien -Forum page of the 18th June. It proposes A NEW APPROACH to the budget process. The Ministry of Finance must evolve from mere number crunchers bogged down in fire-fighting and routine work to proper analysts, involved in strategic thinking and research, in the evaluation and assessment of the impact of the programmes and policies and in advising government accordingly. Presently there is very little analysis of how the policies/projects/programmes taken together will impact at the national level.

BUDGET 2018-19: SHORT-TERM GAINS FOR LONG-TERM PAINS

Published in Le Mauricien, 22 June 2018

The consolidated budget deficit for 2018-19 is -3.8% of GDP (against the advice of the IMF they have recreated some off-budget special funds). If we include the realisable off-budget expenditures (my own estimates), the deficit works out to be -5.0%. Without the grants of Rs 8 billion (at what cost ?  Agalega and the amended Double Taxation Treaty!!!), the consolidated deficit peaks at a catastrophic figure of -6.7 % of GDP (assuming disbursement of the full grants amount).

The three earlier budgets: Absence of reforms

Published in Le Mauricien,13 June 2018 

Awaiting budget 2018-19, it is interesting to have a cursory look at the main aggregates and policy orientations of the earlier budgets of this government which can give us an idea what to expect and not to expect from the forthcoming budget. We have refrained from restrictively comparing one budget to another but rather analyse a budget in terms of its targets, objectives, fiscal strategy and macroeconomic framework.

Slash the Fuel taxes !!!

Published in Le Mauricien, 01 June 2018

We currently paying Rs 52.00 per litre at the pump for gasoline – but roughly 55% of that price comes from different forms of taxes/contributions namely, subsidies, road, ecology and excise and value added taxes. Fuel taxes are usually levied to correct market failures and/or to mobilize fiscal resources.

Inculcating Values through Education

       Dear Sir , your article in LE MAURICIEN of Friday 11th May , titled “L’Education passe avant l’Instruction: Elle fonde l’Homme” did catch my attention as it provides welcome visibility to an important topic. However i felt that it should have concluded with a message of hope and on the things that we can do to tackle the present situation.

Public Sector Debt : Data Gaps

Published in Le Mauricien, 18 May 2018
Some years back during the heydays of the tandem Mansoor-Sithanen, when we were repeatedly highlighting the dubious accounting in the budgets, especially the Special Funds, the very people who were then in the opposition took up these arguments in their interventions and PQs at the National Assembly. At that time they seem to know better than the “Ministry of Finance, Moody’s, the World bank or the IMF”. 

Dipping Unemployment Rate !!!

Published in Le Mauricien, 5 May 2018
The best news for Government is that the unemployment rate is steadily falling from of 7.9%  in 2015 to 7.1% in 2017 - a big drop indeed.

Water tariff increase ?

They are saying that the water tariff will have to increase as it is so low in Mauritius as compared to other countries and there is the need to provide for investment in the sector.
What they did not say ?

“Chantiers” failing to boost growth !!!

The construction sites, or “chantiers” in common parlance sprouting all over the island do not seem to be producing that much of an impact on the economy. These activities do not seem to be stimulating growth.   Despite the fact that the construction sector is booming with a growth rate of 9.5% ( as compared to 7.5% in 2017), the latest national accounts estimates of Statistics Mauritius, of March 2018, forecast a growth rate of less than 4%  in 2018,which is marginally higher than in 2017.  Why ?

The Commission of inquiry : a meticulously planned response

The Commission of Inquiry on the Alvaro Sobrinho affair, which is causing more havoc to the reputation of Mauritius as a “clean” financial jurisdiction, is a carefully conceived counter-attack by government to divert attention from the real issues regarding the affair.

The BAI Saga: “The government comes out a winner !!!”

That’s a tall claim !!!

A New Development Model-another perspective

(A shorter version published in Le Mauricien, 20 April 2018)

For quite some years now Mauritius has been languishing within the middle-income range, caught in a low growth trap of below 4 % due to declining investment ratios, slow manufacturing growth, limited industrial and export diversification, poor labour market conditions and an absence of structural reforms. 

An Exit Interview that smears

(Published in L"Express, 15 Feb 2018 )
Far from setting the record straight the exit interview of the ex-Governor of the Bank of Mauritius (BoM) has kicked off an avalanche of further queries and attempts at deciphering the covert and the meticulously calculated revelations/allegations of the narrative

Budgetary Accounts, July- Dec 2017: Some Concerns

(Published in L'Express, 15 Feb 2018)

Data on budgetary central government accounts are reported monthly to the IMF and published by Statistics Mauritius. The latest figures on public finances relate to Dec 2017, and thus provide an indication of fiscal performance at a midway point of the 2017-18 budget.