Friday, July 6, 2012

Titbits:The Mauritius-India Investment Route; MTPA-Greater accountability required; Moody's Investors Service upgrade !!!

The current visit of the Mauritian minister of foreign affairs to Delhi will set the stage for resuming talks on the Indian tax treaty in August.  Our negotiating position has been considerably weakened by the introduction of the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) in the Indian budget earlier this year, and the draft GAAR guidelines issued last week have confirmed our worst fears of potential override of tax treaty provisions.

The GAAR guidelines have clarified a number of pending objectionable issues. An Impermissible Avoidance Arrangement is defined to involve (a) a tax benefit as a main purpose, and (b) one of four elements: no arms length transactions, tax misuse or abuse, lack of commercial substance, no bona fide purpose.  Substance over form is of fundamental importance, and a company with commercial substance is described as one that has "a Board of Directors that meets in the country and carries out business with adequate manpower, capital and infrastructure of its own". Also, illustratively, "a company shall not be deemed to be a shell/conduit company if its total annual expenditures is at least INRs 10 million in the immediately preceding period of 24 months", under a tax treaty clause.
The GAAR guidelines have received a mixed reaction from the markets in India. Some operators have responded favourably to the proposal for a tax benefit threshold, yet to be quantified, for exempting smaller transactions from GAAR, and also to the option of safe harbour for Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) to be exempted from GAAR, provided they relinquish treaty benefits and pay Indian tax.  Others are totally distrustful of the Indian taxman, and are insisting on a further, or even indefinite, deferral of the effectiveness of GAAR provisions, which are already part of the finance legislation, beyond 2013.
The Indian economic team has expressed its willingness to entertain further suggestions to improve GAAR provisions. A high exemption threshold, the extension of the conditional exemption for FIIs to private equity and other investors, all subject to a token domestic tax rate, greater independence of the appellate body, and more accompanying safeguards for investors, could be among the acceptable fine-tuning proposals.  As matters stand, to expect a major roll-back on GAAR would be tantamount to wishful thinking. Although the unknown unknowns may nevertheless hold sway, the retrospective application of new tax provisions on indirect transfers, which was passed along with GAAR provisions, is far more likely to be reviewed to restore investor confidence.
The implications of GAAR for the continued relevance of the India-Mauritius tax treaty call for a strategic re-assessment of the global business sector, and of our official stand on treaty review.  The safe harbour provision undermines the scope for new FIIs to use  Mauritius to invest into India.  Existing FIIs based in Mauritius may still find some certainty and escape from GAAR by agreeing to pay tax in India, but by making the treaty irrelevant. New FIIs can still invoke the treaty benefits, and hopefully clear the GAAR test by demonstrating commercial substance.  The safe harbour provision does seem to obliterate our hopes for GAAR exemption under the treaty, and leaves Mauritius with no option but to wish for a treaty revision that includes a commercial substance requirement, better known as a limitation of benefits clause, as in the Singapore amended treaty protocol.  It is a supreme irony that Mauritius should now be chasing what it has steadfastly sought to avoid for many years.  Foreign investors and even Mauritian management companies are currently tempted to gravitate to Singapore, because of the relative ease in demonstrating substance there.
      The stonewalling tactic on treaty revisions in response to persistent Indian requests has reached its inevitable conclusion, by driving India to put a final stop to the untrammelled use of Mauritius as a solely tax-driven conduit for investments into India.  It is only another episode in the catalogue of past actions taken by several other partner countries to check misuse of their respective tax treaties by Mauritian offshore vehicles. The U.K. amended its tax treaty more than once; China also made critical amendments; South Africa applied blocking domestic measures; while Indonesia terminated its treaty with Mauritius.  And, unless we tread carefully, our tax treaties with a number of countries in Africa, the object of our future hopes, will not be spared from similar action. Offshore business is fraught with heavy risk, and offshore financial activities are continually subjected to international scrutiny.
India's patience with the tax treaty has worn thin, and its frustration with Mauritian reluctance to review the tax treaty was publicly vented in the Indian Parliament last April. Mauritius has undeniably contributed to the tax efficiency of global investments, and thus to attract more capital to India than would otherwise be the case.  But, over time, India has come to place far greater weight on its tax sovereignty, as well as the avoidance of risks of potential misuse, and has developed a growing confidence that it can attract substantial capital flows directly from foreign investors without recourse to the Mauritius route. But, all is far from lost, and Mauritius can confidently aspire to a financial services centre of greater substance, oriented to more value addition, than a mere adjunct of the global tax avoidance industry. Some twenty years ago, Singapore embarked on developing substantial investment activities, and implemented a clear and decisive strategy to achieve this objective- for instance, by offering the right incentives, including a USD 100 million individual investment mandate, to attract foreign investment firms to set up business in Singapore. There is already an increasing number of funds being established by Mauritian corporate groups to invest into India, Africa and elsewhere, some in conjunction with Indian investment managers.  The India-Mauritius route, which has traded spices, human labour, and now capital, is certain to extend well into the foreseeable future.

Mauritius Tourism Promotion Authority (MTPA)- Greater accountability required

    MTPA cannot continue to spend taxpayers’ money without accountability delivering half-baked projects like shopping fiestas and carnival copycats. Jean Claude Antoine of Week-End wants results and he is querying whether » les promotions dans les centres commerciaux mauriciens inciteront les touristes à se battre pour venir à Maurice? Au lieu de se lancer dans des opérations mal copiées et surtout de le faire hors saison, il serait temps que le ministère et la MTPA arrêtent de faire le carnaval et la fiesta en se mettant sérieusement au travail pour renflouer l'industrie touristique mauricienne qui passe par une des pires périodes de son histoire. »

Indeed, a recent assessment of competitiveness of tourism destinations carried out by the IMF shows that Mauritius is on par with major destinations in the Caribbean (The Bahamas and Jamaica) but is slightly behind regional competitors – Maldives and Seychelles.




Table I : Tourist arrivals: Percentage difference v/s Mauritius






Courtesy: Mauritius: 2012 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report.

   The performance indicators (Table II) for the MTPA, approved by the Ministry of Finance, are mere processes that do not allow us to track the outcomes of expenditures on these fiestas and carnivals. We want value for the money spent. MTPA is being allowed to get off the hook too easily; we need clearly defined results that they are expected to deliver and a clear  link between the results to be  achieved and the level of accountability manifested throughout the organization. Now they are getting away with those marketing campaigns ,  «en se faisant photographier avec des Miss ou en organisant des dialsa à contre saison » while the results are failing to materialise. Our treasury needs to get better at articulating what results we are buying with our taxpayer's money. It is virtually impossible to create a culture of accountability if people are unclear about the key results they are expected to deliver.


Table II : Mauritius Tourism Promotion Authority (MTPA)


Service Standards
(Indicators)
2010 Actual
2011Targets
2012 Targets
S1: Campaigns in source,
niche and emerging markets
SS1: Marketing campaigns
to be carried out in
existing, emerging and new
markets
13
14
14
SS2: Number of fairs,
workshops, exhibitions &
roadshows conducted in
target countries (France,
UK, Germany, Italy, India,
Russia, China & South
Africa)
20
21
24



The Moody's Investors Service upgrade!!
Mauritius was upgraded one notch in the ratings on the basis of its strengthened institutional framework, increased diversification of the economy and the government's significant progress in reducing its debt load. Moody also believe that Mauritius has made progress in diversifying its economy, in part through foreign-direct investment from multiple sources and is  actively transitioning the economy from a comparatively low-skilled exporter to that of a highly-skilled, service-based economy.
However, a rudimentary examination of the economy reveals a totally different picture. The structure of the economy has remained more or less the same over the past five years with services sector representing some 60-62 % of total GDP. The transition to a highly-skilled, service-based economy is still in the making. Surprisingly on the issue of diversification of the economy, the 2011 Article IV Report on Mauritius arrives at a totally different conclusion. “Until the mid-2000s, Mauritius made progress on all export fronts—value, diversification, and sophistication. The stagnation since 2004–05 points to important constraints faced by the traded goods sector. These could probably be traced to bottlenecks in infrastructure ...”.  As for the sources of foreign capital inflows, they have not changed much ; over the past five years FDI from Europe as a % of the total FDI  has averaged  around 54 % , more or less the same as in 2007; FDI from Asia was on average  19 % of the total,  marginally higher than the 17% in 2007.
As to the economy’s resilience to external shocks the World Bank’s Public Sector Performance Development Policy Loan document is more realistic; it posts a 3.7%  growth for the economy in 2012 under its it baseline scenario which may fall to 1.7 % under  the alternative scenario should the economic shocks from the global economy materialize.  In the first quarter of 2012 the economy has begun to show signs of strain; it is already feeling some of the slumping export demand.   

Domestic exports increased nominally by just 1.4% in the 1st quarter of 2012 relative to the same quarter in 2011 but in real terms it showed a decrease of 5%. The overall index of industrial production decreased by 14 % compared to the previous quarter and by 0.3 % compared to the same quarter of 2011. Tourist arrivals for the first three months of 2012 decrease by 0.2% over the the first quarter of 2011. Tourist arrivals from Europe decreased by 2.7% with a 2.7% fall in arrivals from France, the leading market. More worrying is the Balance of Payments which has turned negative.

Balance of Payments : First Quarter 2011 &2012

(Rs million)
     2011
1st Quarter
2012
1st Quarter
Current Account
-4,139
-4,260
Goods and Services
-6,910
-7,680
Capital And Financial Account
6,624
2,329
BOP  Balance
1,797
-1,614


There is a misplaced optimism in the finance ministry which seems to be out of touch with the opinion among private economists, investors and even the Central Bank about the increasing risks to the economy; this is a good time as any to step on the reforms and pro-growth pedals to restore confidence in the Mauritian economy which has been losing its shine for quite some time now.