Le gratin of the public sector -always free for free lectures especially if there are from foreign experts - were all there in the front seats avidly imbibing those glimpses of insights on the need to reassess our strategies towards Asia which is gradually imposing itself as the “true engine of global growth”. The lecture of Professor Dan Quah of LSE did touch a chord.
I went through my mail and retrieved an article sent to me by an economist who was proposing a new direction for our foreign policies. As no man is a prophet in his own land, this interesting piece ended up in some bins of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or stuck up in some editor's mailboxes of our local press. This is how we treat our local researchers and it is not surprising that we end queuing for foreign insights.
His article goes as such: “At the cusp of this millennium, there were already unmistakable warning signs of an intensification of the process of economic globalization - heralding a period of historical transition characterised by the greater integration of national economies into the international economy through trade, foreign direct investment, short-term capital flows, international flows of workers and humanity generally, and technological diffusion. Indeed, the spectacular growth of organised science, the consequent acceleration of technological change and the speed at which new ideas are translated into commercial products distinguish our era from previous ones.
The world is being reshaped by a synergy between technological revolution and global turbocharged capitalism. The newer noticeable trends of this accelerated phase of globalisation are (i) the entry into the world economy of vast new sources of hard working and highly motivated cheap labour; (ii) the unbundling of the production chain across frontiers in manufacturing and extending more deeply into services, (iii) the increasing reliance on trade, (iv) soaring and volatile FDI levels, (v) the rapid increase in actual and potential competitors, (vi) changing prices with collapsing prices of information processing, labour intensive manufactures and tradable services whereas rising prices for a number of commodities and a new trend within the global food crisis- the security of food supplies (vii) highly mobile capital and skilled labour to secure global competitive returns and (viii) and the geopolitical tectonic shift.
A formidable player in a post-crisis low carbon world, the fossil-fuel fed industrial era is ending and the leading power of that age, the US, might not be able to maintain its economic dominance. Economic decoupling is very much a reality of today’s world. The new global players will be India (software and officework), China (software and technology), Brazil (food), Gulf (energy) and Russia (food and energy). Moreover the BRICs, the globe’s emerging economic giants, are negotiating their terms on agriculture terms of trade, accesses to energy, climate change ; China is already emerging as a leader in electric cars, solar power and wind power; the economies are spending massively to fund research in green technologies, including non-silicone-based solar cells, bio mass fuels and carbon collection, storage and collection.
And in 2007/2008 the world suddenly realized that they are celebrating two cumulative simultaneous developments: 1) the arrival of enormous numbers of new hard working young adults on planet earth and 2) the arrival of 3 billion new people to the wealthy lifestyle (by purchase power growth), and all of them (3 billion) arrive at the same time together. By these two developments it’s getting real crowded in the global market place. Both factors (young adults population growth and purchase power growth) results in an exponential growth of global consumption levels. More people and changing habitats are joining forces in creating a ‘perfect economic market storm’. The challenge will be increasing pressure on global energy, global resources and global food supply.
The biggest opportunity will go to those economies that are complimentary to the new configuration of global economic forces rather than competitive with it. We are aware that the long standing sources of vulnerability may suddenly become the focus of more severe economic and financial crisis. Considering the current changes taking place both in Mauritius and internationally, and the efforts at diversifying its economic activities in ICT, financial services, general and professional services, it expects to be an essential node in the ICT, services, in special niches like renewable energy-efficient technologies and an essential investment interface between Asia and Africa. Mauritius will thus need to steer the changes in a direction that will be advantageous to its growth and development but only if it has a properly tuned and consistent new trade, regional and global strategy which is part and parcel of our responses to the global challenges and new developments.
Indeed our local researchers are not off target and much in line with the known Professors of esteemed universities. It is only a question of giving them a chance of being heard.
