The hidden figures of Budget 18-19

Summing up the budgetary debates, the PM counter argued that “Notre performance impressione Moody’s…et le FMI.” That’s a weak argument. Moody’s bases its analysis on the official figures and if they have any queries they liaise directly with the Ministry of Finance. 

Comments on "The lean budget legacy or how to really score political points " - Le Mauricien

https://www.lemauricien.com/article/the-lean-budget-legacy-or-how-to-really-score-political-points/

Please read this article in Le Mauricien -Forum page of the 18th June. It proposes A NEW APPROACH to the budget process. The Ministry of Finance must evolve from mere number crunchers bogged down in fire-fighting and routine work to proper analysts, involved in strategic thinking and research, in the evaluation and assessment of the impact of the programmes and policies and in advising government accordingly. Presently there is very little analysis of how the policies/projects/programmes taken together will impact at the national level.

BUDGET 2018-19: SHORT-TERM GAINS FOR LONG-TERM PAINS

Published in Le Mauricien, 22 June 2018

The consolidated budget deficit for 2018-19 is -3.8% of GDP (against the advice of the IMF they have recreated some off-budget special funds). If we include the realisable off-budget expenditures (my own estimates), the deficit works out to be -5.0%. Without the grants of Rs 8 billion (at what cost ?  Agalega and the amended Double Taxation Treaty!!!), the consolidated deficit peaks at a catastrophic figure of -6.7 % of GDP (assuming disbursement of the full grants amount).

The three earlier budgets: Absence of reforms

Published in Le Mauricien,13 June 2018 

Awaiting budget 2018-19, it is interesting to have a cursory look at the main aggregates and policy orientations of the earlier budgets of this government which can give us an idea what to expect and not to expect from the forthcoming budget. We have refrained from restrictively comparing one budget to another but rather analyse a budget in terms of its targets, objectives, fiscal strategy and macroeconomic framework.